Living in a Trumpster Fire

(Satirical Ode to Life in the 21st Century set to the rhythm of Billy Joel’s “We Didn’t Start the Fire”)

Bill Clinton, Al Gore, George Bush, Iraqi War

Nine eleven, Al Qaeda, Afghanistan

Dick Cheney, Ayatollah, Tom Brady, Super Bowl

Sadam Hussein, Iran, and the Taliban

Rumsfeld, Cheney, Moneyball, Kings robbed in basketball

Harry Potter, Lady Di, Beyoncé Destiny

Subprimes, X-Men, Sopranos, Great Recession

Gladiator, land of the free, economic misery

Living in a Trumpster fire

Our cities are burning while the world is churning

Living in a Trumpster fire

No, we didn’t light it, but we’ve got to fight it

Ever since the founding of our republic, the evolving relationship between the United States and China has been unique among all nations. In his book THE BEAUTIFUL COUNTRY AND THE MIDDLE KINGDOM published in 2016, American journalist John Pomfret describes the evolution of this strange and complex relationship as a "never-ending Buddhist cycle of reincarnation. Both sides experience rapturous enchantment begetting hope, followed by disappointment, repulsion, and disgust, only to return to fascination once again."

In this essay, I explore why this relationship has become critical to the future of both countries and essential to the survival of our world. To understand this relationship better, I start with a brief history of U.S. China relations from the late eighteenth century through the start of the twenty-first century, followed by an examination of how this relationship changed from partner to competitor when China ascended to superstar status and how the power and prestige of both nations has been diminished by their bungled responses to the Covid-19 pandemic and domestic dissent. Finally, I look at the future of U.S.-China relations and how both nations may decide to assert leadership in a changing world.

As tensions between these superpowers accelerate, it is more important than ever to apply the lessons of history to find a sustainable path forward. Although we have shared two centuries of alternating infatuation and disappointment, far more draws the people of “The Beautiful Country” (“Meiguo”) and “The Middle Kingdom” (“Zhongguo”) together than pulls them apart.

America looks nothing like it did two months ago. On March 1, the economy was humming along with unemployment below four percent and the stock market at record highs. Fewer than 100 coronavirus cases and a handful of deaths had been recorded in a few cities across the land. President Trump assured us that he had “things totally under control.” “Everything will be fine,” he said. His top economic adviser Larry Kudlow declared: “We have contained this. I won’t say airtight, but pretty close to airtight.”

Yet to anyone paying close attention, dark clouds hung over the horizon. After a decade of economic expansion following the Great Recession, signs of slowing growth and a possible recession were starting to appear. Federal budget deficits were skyrocketing - in part to pay for a $2 trillion tax cut for the wealthy, productivity growth was in decline, America’s trade deficit was at an all-time high, wealth and income inequality was escalating faster than the rest of the world, housing affordability and homelessness were worsening, and America’s infrastructure was crumbling. China, Italy, and other countries in Asia and Western Europe were fully engaged in national efforts to control what was already being called a pandemic. That was before the coronavirus attacked our shores.

Two months later, more than a million coronavirus cases have been recorded in the U.S., far and away the most of any nation and a third of the world’s total. More than 55,000 Americans have died from the virus, a quarter of deaths worldwide. Epidemiologists estimate that the true number could be ten million cases and 70-80,000 deaths in the U.S. Another 30 million Americans have filed for unemployment, numbers not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. America’s airline and hospitality industries are nonexistent. Millions of small businesses have closed. Americans are hunkering down for the long haul.

Congress responded quickly to this economic disaster with a four-part emergency relief package called the CARES Act whose $2.7 Trillion price tag is more than triple the size of the stimulus bill passed in the wake of the 2008 financial meltdown. These relief measures should help keep the economy afloat while we recover from the pandemic. More will undoubtedly be needed, especially to help beleaguered health and safety workers fighting on the front lines against this pandemic.

With the prospect of unemployment in the 20-30 percent range and trillions of dollars in debt piling up, talk has naturally turned towards reopening the economy as soon as possible. However, under the most optimistic of scenarios, the AC economy (after the coronavirus) will probably not return to BC (before the coronavirus) levels of employment and productivity until a vaccine has been successfully mass-produced, which public health experts say will take 18 to 24 months or more. Even two years is optimistic given that no vaccine has ever been produced before in less than four years.

Even as we scramble to keep the economy on life support over the next year or so, we also need to plan for the period when social distancing constraints are lifted and the economy can go full tilt. Rather than returning to normal, our goal should be to build a more sustainable and equitable economy that is more resilient to pandemics, climate change, and whatever else comes our way. In terms of energy and climate change policy, California has already shown the way forward. In terms of equity, America must look to its own history for inspiration.

Several weeks into the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdown, it appears that America may never return to the same normal as before. Whether life in America AC (After the Coronavirus) is better or worse than life in America BC depends on the choices that we make, individually and collectively, from now on. America is facing an existential crisis the likes of which we have not seen since World War II, maybe since the Civil War. Politics as usual will no longer suffice. A fundamental restructuring of our priorities and our politics is needed to address the crisis and its aftermath.

Over the next few weeks, I will be posting a series of essays on the lessons, challenges and opportunities presented by the concurrent crises in public health, politics, the economy, climate change, and US-China relations. To paraphrase Winston Churchill, we must not let these crises go to waste. Let’s start where the crisis began with the public health meltdown.